@Article{Siqueira-GayYaLePeBoCaBo:2020:PaPoSc,
               author = "Siqueira-Gay, Juliana and Yanai, Aurora Miho and Lessmann, Janeth 
                         and Pess{\^o}a, Ana Carolina Moreira and Borja, Danilo and 
                         Canova, Moara and Borges, Rafael Cabral",
          affiliation = "{Universidade de S{\~a}o Paulo (USP)} and {Instituto Nacional de 
                         Pesquisas da Amazonia (INPA)} and {Pontificia Universidad 
                         Cat{\'o}lica de Chile} and {Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas 
                         Espaciais (INPE)} and {University of Calgary} and {Universidade 
                         Estadual de Campinas (UNICAMP)} and {Universidade Federal do 
                         Par{\'a} (UFPA)}",
                title = "Pathways to positive scenarios for the Amazon forest in Par{\'a} 
                         state, Brazil",
              journal = "Biota Neotropica",
                 year = "2020",
               volume = "20",
               number = "Suppl 1",
                pages = "e20190905",
             keywords = "Deforestation, Biodiversity, Ecosystem services, Forest 
                         degradation, Conceptual framework, IPBES.",
             abstract = "Infrastructure projects and agriculture expansion are increasingly 
                         threatening forest conservation in Para state (Brazil). It becomes 
                         necessary to address the implications of these activities on the 
                         Amazon complex socio-ecological system, considering both material 
                         and non-material aspects of Nature's Contributions to People 
                         (NCP). Multiple studies developed future scenarios for the Amazon, 
                         but only a few have focused on discussing positive futures derived 
                         from policies and interventions based on conservation and human 
                         well-being. Here, we aim at understanding the drivers of forest 
                         cover change to produce positive scenarios for the future of the 
                         Amazon forest in Para state. By using the Intergovernmental 
                         Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services 
                         (IPBES) conceptual framework, we identified as direct drivers of 
                         forest cover change: (i) roads construction; (ii) forest 
                         degradation; (iii) hydropower projects; (iv) urban expansion; (v) 
                         agriculture and pasture expansion; (vi) rural land occupation; 
                         (vii) mining; (viii) climate change. As indirect drivers we 
                         identified: (i) energy demand; (ii) population growth; (iii) land 
                         prices; (iv) commodity demand; (v) consumption behavior. The 
                         development of conservation strategies in the borders of 
                         deforested areas is needed given the high demand for Nature ' s 
                         Contributions to People supply. We also propose policies to 
                         address the main drivers of forest cover change, influencing land 
                         management and consumption behavior in the state. At last, we 
                         envision future positive scenarios that would emerge from policy 
                         applications and sustainable actions. Based on our study, we 
                         discuss the importance of social learning for developing pathways 
                         leading to positive futures that consider the integrity and 
                         development of both ecological and social systems.",
                  doi = "10.1590/1676-0611-bn-2019-0905",
                  url = "http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/1676-0611-bn-2019-0905",
                 issn = "1676-0603 and 1676-0611",
                label = "lattes: 9352090361680792 4 Siqueira-GayYaLePeBoCaBo:2020:PaPoSc",
             language = "en",
           targetfile = "siqueira_pathways.pdf",
        urlaccessdate = "27 abr. 2024"
}